商业与政策研究中心 Custom Studies

The COVID-19 pandemic has had very different impacts on employment across the sub-regions of the Northern California Megaregion (NCMR). This report analyzes those differences through the first six months of the pandemic using a high-quality dataset based on employer tax filings and provides a more accurate picture than early estimates based on surveys and unemployment insurance claims.  The data shows the North San Joaquin Valley (NSJV) has been the most resistant to job loss in the first six months of the pandemic, while the North Bay area and San Francisco have experienced the highest level of job loss.

We find that the hardest-hit workers in Northern California occupy low-wage service jobs based in tourism-dependent locations and high-income communities with many remote workers. The report also shows average wages have increased sharply over the past year, in large part because so many low-paying jobs have been lost. 下面是总结概述, the report discusses the situation in each sub-region of the NCMR with county-specific employment trends and industry-level details of regional change in employment and wages.
 

COVID-19 will lead to record high unemployment rates across Northern California by May, according to the 商业与政策研究中心 at the 正规博彩十大网站.  中心估计损失1.2500万个工作岗位，最高失业率为17%.7% in Northern California and a statewide loss of over 3.800万个工作岗位，失业率为18%.8%. 

Impacts will vary across Northern California Metro Areas, although all areas will set new records for unemployment and job loss.  由于它严重依赖旅游和旅游业, the Napa economy is the hardest hit with a projected 29% loss in jobs and a peak unemployment rate of 22%.  The tech-oriented San Jose economy will see the smallest economic losses with a projected 18% decline in jobs and a 15% unemployment rate.  The North San Joaquin Valley and Sacramento areas will see impacts close to the statewide average with unemployment rates of 19-20%, and about a 22% loss in jobs across these inland regions.

The report also finds that the benefits of stay-at-home and social distancing policies are worth these significant economic costs, and cautions against using these projections to argue for ending these necessary public health regulations.  The report does not forecast the path for economic recovery.  评估影响, the Center used a bottom-up approach based on occupational risks and the distribution of occupations across local economies with adjustments for self-employment and regional commuting patterns.

In 2015, California's legislature passed a series of bills entitled the Medical Marijuana Regulation and 安全 Act (MMRSA) which established the first statewide regulatory system for medical cannabis businesses. 随后通过了第64号提案, 成人使用大麻法案(AUMA), in November 2016 which legalized recreational use of cannabis at the state-level for persons aged 21 years and older. 随着这些法律的通过, local governments across the state are developing local regulations for this emerging industry.

The 商业与政策研究中心 (CBPR) has been analyzing the economics of the cannabis sector in California. Through re搜索 on industry data from early legalization states and detailed interviews with cannabis industry farmers, 投资者, 和北加州的会计师, we have developed an economic model of ten industry sectors and incorporated these custom sectors into IMPLAN, 最广泛使用的经济影响模型. We are also developing fiscal impact assessments to examine the impacts of tax and regulatory scenarios on local governments. To date, CBPR has released two reports on the cannabis economy. These economic studies are helpful to communities trying to understand the scale and economic potential of the cannabis sector.  然而, they do not examine possible social impacts of cannabis, 包括可能对医疗保健产生的影响, 心理健康, 和犯罪. 

This 研究 Brief presents data and discusses commuting patterns in the North San Joaquin Valley (NSJV) prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. 虽然大流行破坏了这些模式, we believe that this information provides useful context as we look towards future development of the NSJV region.